How to read a FairPlay match tip

01What a match tip is, and what it is not

A FairPlay match tip is a set of reading notes for one upcoming match. It says where the verified numbers lean, how strongly, and which pieces of evidence agree or disagree. It is not a promise, a staking suggestion or inside information.

Tips cover scheduled matches starting in the next 72 hours, for teams with enough verified history. They are rebuilt every time the tips page loads, so a new result or a changed fixture shows up straight away.

02The four bands

The band at the top of each tip is a one-word summary of the gap between the two teams' model percentages.

03Reading the percentage

The percentages come from FairPlay's rating model, which rates every team from verified results in the same format and includes a small home advantage. They are the same fair chances FairPlay's rates start from, before any margin is added. The full method and its tested accuracy are on the prediction methodology page.

• Thin history: when one side has fewer than 20 rated matches in the format, the estimate is pulled towards 50% and the tip says so.
• No estimate: a team needs at least 8 rated results in the format. Below that, the tip shows no number rather than a guess.
• Tests and first-class matches: these can be drawn, and FairPlay has not yet built a tested draw model, so they have no percentage.
• T10 and 100-ball matches are rated together with T20 cricket.

04Form, head-to-head and venue

• Recent form is each team's last five verified results in the same format from the past 24 months. A run of three or more wins or losses in a row is called out.
• Form counts as better for one side only when its win rate in decided matches is at least 20 points higher than the other's.
• Head-to-head needs at least three meetings in the past 24 months to say who leads. It gets less weight than form, because squads change.
• Venue figures need at least 8 verified results at the ground in the same format over the last 12 months. If the side batting first won 58% or more, the tip says batting first has paid; 42% or less, it says chasing has suited the ground.

You can explore the same figures on the statistics and venues pages.

05When the signals disagree

The model looks at long-run ratings, while form looks only at the last few matches. When the model's pick and the team in better form are different sides, the tip adds a 'Model and form disagree' note. Treat those matches as more open than the percentage alone suggests.

06What a tip cannot see

• Team news: injuries, rested players and late changes are not in the data.
• Pitch and weather: the venue figures describe past matches, not today's surface or forecast.
• The toss: it can matter a lot at some grounds, and it happens after tips are built.
• Motivation and context: dead rubbers, qualification maths and travel are not modelled.

Check the match centre close to the start for line-ups and the toss, and read the tip again with that in mind.