The four steps behind every rate
- Verified match data: each market starts from a fixture confirmed by the match-data source, with its teams, format, venue and start time.
- FairPlay's own probability: the rating model estimates each team's chance from verified results in the same format. The toss is priced as an even 50/50.
- House margin and price ladder: a published margin turns the probability into a rate, which is rounded down to FairPlay's standard price ladder and checked against an allowed band.
- Automatic suspension: rates pause when data is delayed, a fixture changes, a price expires or the match starts.
The book and the house margin
Each rate implies a chance: 1 divided by the decimal rate. Add up the implied chances of every outcome in a market and you get the book. A market with no margin adds up to exactly 100%.
| Outcome | Rate | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| Team A wins the toss | 1.90 | 52.6% |
| Team B wins the toss | 1.90 | 52.6% |
| Book | 105.3% |
The extra 5.3% above 100% is the house margin. The margins in force for each market are read live from the pricing engine and listed on the FairPlay rates page.
Which markets are priced
- Match winner: up to seven days before the start, when both teams have enough verified history in the format.
- Toss: priced as an even contest with the same margin on both sides, which is why each side is below 2.00.
- In-play rates are switched off until FairPlay has measured live data delays across real matches.
Model estimate versus rate
The percentage on a match tip is the fair chance. The rate is that chance with the margin added, so the chance implied by a rate is always a little higher than the estimate. If a team's estimate is 60%, its rate implies a little more than 60%.
Can you bet on these rates today?
More guides
18+ only. FairPlay guides explain how prices and data work. Betting is not open on FairPlay. Responsible use