31 matches start in the next 72 hours and 22 of them have a model estimate. Below are the first 12 with enough verified history, earliest first. Form shows the last five results in the same format group, most recent first; T10 and 100-ball matches count with T20.
ICC World Test Championship · Test/5day
No model estimate: first-class matches can be drawn, and FairPlay has not yet built a tested draw model.
Women's Big Bash League · T20
Statistical model estimate — not a betting rate or a guarantee.
Test Series · Test/5day
No model estimate: first-class matches can be drawn, and FairPlay has not yet built a tested draw model.
ACC U19 Asia Cup · Youth ODI
Pulled towards 50% because one side has fewer than 20 rated matches in this format.
Statistical model estimate — not a betting rate or a guarantee.
ACC U19 Asia Cup · Youth ODI
No model estimate: one or both teams have fewer than 8 rated results in one-day cricket.
Nepal Premier League · T20
Pulled towards 50% because one side has fewer than 20 rated matches in this format.
Statistical model estimate — not a betting rate or a guarantee.
Women's Big Bash League · T20
Statistical model estimate — not a betting rate or a guarantee.
Nepal Premier League · T20
Pulled towards 50% because one side has fewer than 20 rated matches in this format.
Statistical model estimate — not a betting rate or a guarantee.
CSA T20 Challenge · T20
Pulled towards 50% because one side has fewer than 20 rated matches in this format.
Statistical model estimate — not a betting rate or a guarantee.
ACC U19 Asia Cup · Youth ODI
No model estimate: one or both teams have fewer than 8 rated results in one-day cricket.
ACC U19 Asia Cup · Youth ODI
No model estimate: one or both teams have fewer than 8 rated results in one-day cricket.
Nepal Premier League · T20
Pulled towards 50% because one side has fewer than 20 rated matches in this format.
Statistical model estimate — not a betting rate or a guarantee.
Senior international teams with at least 20 rated matches in the format and a match in the last 12 months. Every team starts at 1500. Men's and women's teams are rated separately because they never play each other.
| # | Team | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pakistan | 1635 | 1 Nov 2026 |
| 2 | England | 1634 | 1 Nov 2026 |
| 3 | India | 1605 | 1 Nov 2026 |
| 4 | Australia | 1597 | 1 Nov 2026 |
| 5 | Cayman Islands | 1592 | 28 Sept 2026 |
| 6 | Afghanistan | 1583 | 1 Nov 2026 |
| 7 | South Africa | 1574 | 1 Nov 2026 |
| 8 | Qatar | 1551 | 14 Oct 2026 |
| 9 | New Zealand | 1543 | 1 Nov 2026 |
| 10 | Nepal | 1539 | 25 Sept 2026 |
| 11 | Kuwait | 1536 | 12 Oct 2026 |
| 12 | Hong Kong | 1532 | 1 Nov 2026 |
| 13 | Malaysia | 1527 | 14 Oct 2026 |
| 14 | Germany | 1526 | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 15 | Bahrain | 1522 | 14 Oct 2026 |
| # | Team | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Australia W | 1632 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 2 | India W | 1616 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 3 | England W | 1594 | 5 Jul 2026 |
| 4 | South Africa W | 1567 | 19 Sept 2026 |
| 5 | Sri Lanka W | 1564 | 22 Sept 2026 |
| 6 | New Zealand W | 1500 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 7 | West Indies W | 1491 | 7 Oct 2026 |
| 8 | Pakistan W | 1479 | 22 Sept 2026 |
| 9 | Bangladesh W | 1416 | 22 Sept 2026 |
| 10 | Zimbabwe W | 1323 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| # | Team | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Afghanistan | 1592 | 23 Oct 2026 |
| 2 | India | 1581 | 4 Nov 2026 |
| 3 | New Zealand | 1578 | 4 Nov 2026 |
| 4 | United States of America | 1575 | 13 Oct 2026 |
| 5 | Scotland | 1564 | 13 Aug 2026 |
| 6 | Netherlands | 1542 | 2 Nov 2026 |
| 7 | Nepal | 1541 | 19 Oct 2026 |
| 8 | Pakistan | 1538 | 31 Oct 2026 |
| 9 | South Africa | 1528 | 30 Sept 2026 |
| 10 | United Arab Emirates | 1517 | 4 Nov 2026 |
| 11 | Australia | 1498 | 30 Sept 2026 |
| 12 | Namibia | 1483 | 1 Nov 2026 |
| 13 | Sri Lanka | 1482 | 31 Oct 2026 |
| 14 | England | 1480 | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 15 | West Indies | 1457 | 3 Oct 2026 |
| # | Team | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Australia W | 1715 | 14 Oct 2026 |
| 2 | India W | 1576 | 28 Oct 2026 |
| 3 | South Africa W | 1555 | 4 Apr 2026 |
| 4 | England W | 1555 | 6 Sept 2026 |
| 5 | New Zealand W | 1524 | 16 May 2026 |
| 6 | Pakistan W | 1506 | 28 Jul 2026 |
| 7 | Sri Lanka W | 1497 | 28 Jul 2026 |
| 8 | West Indies W | 1467 | 30 Sept 2026 |
| 9 | Bangladesh W | 1440 | 14 Oct 2026 |
| 10 | Ireland W | 1372 | 6 Sept 2026 |
FairPlay pre-match rating model, version 1, awaiting sign-off for trading. Every figure below comes from testing it against verified results it had not yet seen.
A well-calibrated model's 60% favourites should win about 60% of the time. The test replays every verified result in date order and records each estimate before that match updates the ratings. Last run Thu, 5 Nov, 06:18 IST.
| Estimate band | Matches | Average estimate | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 2 (small sample) | 19% | 0% |
| 20–30% | 13 (small sample) | 26% | 23% |
| 30–40% | 100 | 36% | 37% |
| 40–50% | 699 | 46% | 43% |
| 50–60% | 1,505 | 54% | 55% |
| 60–70% | 431 | 64% | 65% |
| 70–80% | 72 | 73% | 64% |
| 80–90% | 13 (small sample) | 83% | 92% |
Accuracy by format, every model setting and how estimates become rates: prediction methodology.
Each team has a separate rating for T20 and shorter, one-day, and Test and first-class cricket, starting at 1500. After every decided result the winner takes points from the loser; an upset moves more points than an expected win. Ties, draws and no-results do not change ratings.
The gap between two ratings gives each side's chance, with the first-named team treated as the home side (worth 30 rating points); neutral venues are not yet told apart. With fewer than 20 rated matches the estimate is pulled towards 50%, and below 8 none is shown.
Form, head-to-head (24 months, same format group) and venue figures are counted from the same verified results. They are shown for context and are not added to the estimate.
The model knows nothing about players, pitch, weather or selection. Estimates describe likelihood, never certainty, and they are not advice to bet.
It is FairPlay's own estimate of each team's chance of winning, calculated from team ratings built on verified results. It is not a betting rate and not a guarantee: a team given 40% should still win about four matches in ten. FairPlay's rates are separate prices that include a house margin.
FairPlay rates start from the same estimate and then add a published house margin, so the chance implied by a rate is slightly higher than the estimate. The FairPlay rates page explains the margin in full.
The model needs at least 8 rated results for both teams in the format. Test and first-class matches have no estimate because they can be drawn, and FairPlay has not yet built and tested a draw model.
A rating reflects results against the teams a side has actually played. Teams that rarely meet each other are not directly comparable, so treat the tables as a guide rather than an official ranking.
Not yet. Everything on this page is calculated from verified match data by FairPlay's published method. Written analysis will carry its author's name and publication date when it appears.
Not in the model. Venue figures are shown for context, but the estimate uses team results only. Late changes such as injuries or rain can make a match very different from the estimate.
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